Here is my take on some of the *contributing* factors around the current *crisis* and why it won’t be fixed anytime soon by our political class.
For over seventy years we as a nation have allowed our governments the freedom to attempt to *pick winners* at their sole discretion. Mediocre politicians have had a merry time with our money flashing it about to this or that cause – investing here or there – all in the hope that some of it will stick and that it will result in a sustainable and viable *industry* - creating that holy grail – "employment".
These same politicians would then go to confession and say "there – we did our bit for the nation" - in the hope that it would result in a gong or sinecure of some sort.
Seventy years ago they tried it with the car industry, then the aircraft industry, the defence industry, the oil and gas industry, the steel makers, the aluminium producers, the energy companies, the telco industry, the banking industry, the retailers, the wine industry, the mining industry, the fishing industry, don’t forget the farmers and the services industry. Have I missed anyone?
We have had just about every - old world industry on the planet asking for and getting some form of help, assistance, tariff or preferential treatment by our various governments – state and federal. And they are still at it.
Forget the lean, clean and modern IP based industries of the future - they are too complex for our political class to understand.
And here we are in late 2008 and strangely, we cannot point to any one of those needy - old world industries actually being world class, standing on their own and weathering the *crisis*. In fact they are all demanding yet more *assistance* to see it all through.
In a word – it’s "bullshit".
Our car industry is a classic – propped up by featherbedding, tariffs and government assistance – it has been in a class of it’s own – all because of the numbers of workers in the system.
Australian’s have been paying more than 20% too much for cars for eons. Government’s have been paralysed and unable to act for fear that they will be seen as the "bad guy" when the industry collapses – as it now has. Mind you the signals have been obvious for 5 or more years but the paralysis has just meant more inaction. It’s a tragedy – especially for the workers.
And Joe Citizen is not totally stupid – he has seen this unfolding and has reasoned that if the car industry can get away with it for so long then he will try to game the system as well. This is one of the reasons why Joe and his friends and family have been paying too much for houses – they reason that if governments can make us pay too much for cars for 70 odd years then what’s wrong with doing the same with houses for a few years? Good question.
And some of those same political class think that the future of the nation hinges on a $10 billion distribution to welfare recipients this week.
A welfare led recovery ;-) now that is unfrigginbelievable.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
The Boat - Model Images
Here are some images of "The Boat" - have been updating the model as construction proceeds and as some minor changes evolve based on what I am learning during construction. With any luck the model will evolve into an "as constructed" view of the final built boat.
Progress has been good - am putting together the frames and supporting structure for the first half of each hull and coating everything with epoxy as work proceeds. That is interesting - if time consuming work.
Biggest challenges to-date? Not enough clamps and having to wait for the epoxy to "go off". Just been to the hardware store for more clamps and am trying to organise a day's assembly work in advance so that each morning the epoxy has sufficient strength to move the structure.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The Boat - Update 1
Here is a simplified model of a hull – without centerboards, beam sockets and other appendages.
Each hull is made up of eight vertical frames three of which contain beam sockets, a keel running the full length, a horizontal bulkhead at 400mm above the LWL, a top skin, a bottom skin and two side skins. The top and side skins are 6mm ply and everything else is 9mm ply. The whole structure will be glued using epoxy and all joints taped inside and out. Each hull will eventually be covered with a glass skin and epoxy.
During the past two weeks, all the hull frames, beam sockets, reinforcement panels and bottom skin have been cut and shaped and readied for assembly for both hulls.
The next task is to clean up the work space and get all the components ready for epoxy. Everything will get two coats of epoxy and then all the pieces will be assembled – something like a giant 3 dimensional jigsaw puzzle – assuming that I have measured and cut everything correctly!
Each hull is made up of eight vertical frames three of which contain beam sockets, a keel running the full length, a horizontal bulkhead at 400mm above the LWL, a top skin, a bottom skin and two side skins. The top and side skins are 6mm ply and everything else is 9mm ply. The whole structure will be glued using epoxy and all joints taped inside and out. Each hull will eventually be covered with a glass skin and epoxy.
During the past two weeks, all the hull frames, beam sockets, reinforcement panels and bottom skin have been cut and shaped and readied for assembly for both hulls.
The next task is to clean up the work space and get all the components ready for epoxy. Everything will get two coats of epoxy and then all the pieces will be assembled – something like a giant 3 dimensional jigsaw puzzle – assuming that I have measured and cut everything correctly!
Winners and Losers
Our Prime Minister has declared a "War on Unemployment" to combat one of the bigger problems arising from the global financial meltdown.
But it is the Treasury staffers who are pulling the levers – in fact the same people who have by and large, been pulling the same levers for the past decade and more. Is it any wonder then that we see the same unintended consequences resulting in the creation yet again of groups of "winners" and "losers".
If you are a loser then blame the econocrats in Treasury. If you are a winner then just pocket the cash and grin ;-)
Obviously the car industry and it’s various hangers on are among the winners. This is an industry that has been on the public teat in one way or another since the end of the second world war – over 70 years ago.
If you are involved with the car industry then you will be a winner because according to Treasury you are part of an industry that they deem too big to fail – so you can happily keep doing the same things that you have been doing since day dot.
Perhaps eventually the local car industry will get creative and innovative and produce efficient and inexpensive quality transport that stirs the soul – but I won’t be holding my breath.
Meanwhile, all those small, innovative, creative and mostly technology based industries that are at the dawn of a new age will become the losers.
These are the so called "soft" industries – that are evolving and developing in and around the internet and which rely on, develop and use leading edge information technology.
They include; analytics, image, video, audio and other software developers who are the backbone of the success of Google and others. Unfortunately, they are largely invisible to politicians and bureaucrats and they don’t have a big brother in Treasury or a capable industry association and lobbyists to watch over them.
Believe it or not there were once a large number of people employed in Australia in these industries and in the original information technology industry which got started here around the mid 1970’s. The large companies like banks and telco’s actually can’t operate without IT but for some reason they don’t like employing Australians to make it all work.
The banks and other large corporates have been relentlessly *offshoring* these jobs for a few years now because they have been pursuing a "lowest cost" model. It’s ironic that the local banks seek to operate under the protection of the "Four Pillars" policy while discarding Australian staff in information technology and other areas.
In the same week that our Prime Minister announced that he would throw over $6 billion dollars at the local car industry, one of our local banks announced that it was sending a $580 million technology project to India. Great timing. Which bank?
It’s obvious to me which industry we should be fostering and supporting and which ones we should be weaning off the public teat.
But then I don’t work for Treasury.
But it is the Treasury staffers who are pulling the levers – in fact the same people who have by and large, been pulling the same levers for the past decade and more. Is it any wonder then that we see the same unintended consequences resulting in the creation yet again of groups of "winners" and "losers".
If you are a loser then blame the econocrats in Treasury. If you are a winner then just pocket the cash and grin ;-)
Obviously the car industry and it’s various hangers on are among the winners. This is an industry that has been on the public teat in one way or another since the end of the second world war – over 70 years ago.
If you are involved with the car industry then you will be a winner because according to Treasury you are part of an industry that they deem too big to fail – so you can happily keep doing the same things that you have been doing since day dot.
Perhaps eventually the local car industry will get creative and innovative and produce efficient and inexpensive quality transport that stirs the soul – but I won’t be holding my breath.
Meanwhile, all those small, innovative, creative and mostly technology based industries that are at the dawn of a new age will become the losers.
These are the so called "soft" industries – that are evolving and developing in and around the internet and which rely on, develop and use leading edge information technology.
They include; analytics, image, video, audio and other software developers who are the backbone of the success of Google and others. Unfortunately, they are largely invisible to politicians and bureaucrats and they don’t have a big brother in Treasury or a capable industry association and lobbyists to watch over them.
Believe it or not there were once a large number of people employed in Australia in these industries and in the original information technology industry which got started here around the mid 1970’s. The large companies like banks and telco’s actually can’t operate without IT but for some reason they don’t like employing Australians to make it all work.
The banks and other large corporates have been relentlessly *offshoring* these jobs for a few years now because they have been pursuing a "lowest cost" model. It’s ironic that the local banks seek to operate under the protection of the "Four Pillars" policy while discarding Australian staff in information technology and other areas.
In the same week that our Prime Minister announced that he would throw over $6 billion dollars at the local car industry, one of our local banks announced that it was sending a $580 million technology project to India. Great timing. Which bank?
It’s obvious to me which industry we should be fostering and supporting and which ones we should be weaning off the public teat.
But then I don’t work for Treasury.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Boat
For the past three years on-and-off I have been researching boat designs, systems and technologies – all geared toward the day when I have enough time and money to build "the boat".
I have previously built boats and other complex things and have a lot of experience with wood, epoxy and composites – usually small craft in the 14 to 16 foot range.
Three years ago "the boat" was going to be a catamaran – to a Tim Clissold design but those thoughts and ideas have evolved into a variety of trimarans and other cats and even the odd mono hull.
The final version is a cat by Bernd Kohler and based on his DUO 800 design. You can find the design here.
This is a very light – even minimalist design that can be described as a "pod cat" – because it has two 8 metre long hulls and a central pod supported by aluminium beams. It is demountable and the version that I am building has a neat "biplane" rig – two carbon fibre masts – one in each hull.
But even Bernd’s design wasn’t quite what I wanted – so I have made a few modifications.
As an aside, I ended up going to school and learning the fundamentals of yacht design - including hydrostatics and structures and spent a lot of time exploring alternatives with 3D modeling software. I must have created and tested 30+ designs before this final configuration emerged.
I have enlarged the DUO 800 pod (slightly) and the hulls have been modified – they are now symmetrical – the original was asymmetrical and didn’t use centerboards and a few other things that are evolving as the build progresses. Some very interesting foils are going to serve duty as centreboards.
Progress has been good – my efforts in the first week have produced the hull sections and I am starting on the beam connection sockets - will keep you posted.
I have previously built boats and other complex things and have a lot of experience with wood, epoxy and composites – usually small craft in the 14 to 16 foot range.
Three years ago "the boat" was going to be a catamaran – to a Tim Clissold design but those thoughts and ideas have evolved into a variety of trimarans and other cats and even the odd mono hull.
The final version is a cat by Bernd Kohler and based on his DUO 800 design. You can find the design here.
This is a very light – even minimalist design that can be described as a "pod cat" – because it has two 8 metre long hulls and a central pod supported by aluminium beams. It is demountable and the version that I am building has a neat "biplane" rig – two carbon fibre masts – one in each hull.
But even Bernd’s design wasn’t quite what I wanted – so I have made a few modifications.
As an aside, I ended up going to school and learning the fundamentals of yacht design - including hydrostatics and structures and spent a lot of time exploring alternatives with 3D modeling software. I must have created and tested 30+ designs before this final configuration emerged.
I have enlarged the DUO 800 pod (slightly) and the hulls have been modified – they are now symmetrical – the original was asymmetrical and didn’t use centerboards and a few other things that are evolving as the build progresses. Some very interesting foils are going to serve duty as centreboards.
Progress has been good – my efforts in the first week have produced the hull sections and I am starting on the beam connection sockets - will keep you posted.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Poor Policy dressed up as a Good Idea
Now I don’t want to be a party pooper – but it’s a seriously *stupid* idea for the federal government to prime the real estate market with yet more dollars by way of the "first home owners grant".
Because that was a big contributor to this mess in the first place.
The OECD and others have been warning for a long time that Australian real estate is seriously overvalued – to the tune of 50%. The bubble that started inflating at the beginning of this century has yet to deflate.
There was an opportunity with the current financial crisis to fix this distortion and to allow prices to come back to a reasonable level – albeit one that would mean that punters would have lost some of their gains – and state governments would have had to get smarter with their land release strategies.
This is what I was expecting to happen – but Kevin and Wayne have obviously been convinced that a hit to housing would have a large impact on the broader economy.
This intervention has got Treasury’s fingerprints all over it. And all it will do is defer the moment when the hit to real estate will have to be taken and prices come back into line with what is happening in the US and the UK.
It’s not a very smart approach to keep propping up real estate so that prices stay 50% or so higher than the rest of the world – just to keep the punters on-side.
My sense is that they might be successful in the very short term but eventually the piper will have to be paid and we will see a decline in values – my guess is that Kevin probably won’t want that just prior to the next election.
Because that was a big contributor to this mess in the first place.
The OECD and others have been warning for a long time that Australian real estate is seriously overvalued – to the tune of 50%. The bubble that started inflating at the beginning of this century has yet to deflate.
There was an opportunity with the current financial crisis to fix this distortion and to allow prices to come back to a reasonable level – albeit one that would mean that punters would have lost some of their gains – and state governments would have had to get smarter with their land release strategies.
This is what I was expecting to happen – but Kevin and Wayne have obviously been convinced that a hit to housing would have a large impact on the broader economy.
This intervention has got Treasury’s fingerprints all over it. And all it will do is defer the moment when the hit to real estate will have to be taken and prices come back into line with what is happening in the US and the UK.
It’s not a very smart approach to keep propping up real estate so that prices stay 50% or so higher than the rest of the world – just to keep the punters on-side.
My sense is that they might be successful in the very short term but eventually the piper will have to be paid and we will see a decline in values – my guess is that Kevin probably won’t want that just prior to the next election.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Skill Shortages - Part 4
It is interesting to discover the large amount of quality material in the public domain about "skill shortages" - the only question is why we still keep blabbering on about it - perhaps it has something to do with "vested interests" trying to control the agenda. Anyway, this article by Sam Varghese in March 15, 2005 is still relevant in 2008.
The talk of a skills shortage in ICT labour market is perplexing because most available data points in exactly the opposite direction, a leading labour market consultant says.
Bob Kinnaird, who is with the Sydney firm of R.T. Kinnaird and Associates, said there was no evidence to justify the claims of a shortage of qualified labour among IT graduates, post-graduates or experienced professionals.
Kinnaird undertook a study for the Australian Computer Society last year which found that migrant IT workers were depriving Australian IT workers of jobs. The report was never released by the ACS, according to a report in the Australian Financial Review.
However, a copy was passed to the then communications minister Daryl Williams and distributed to several government departments.
Kinnaird said today that the ACS had commissioned him to do an update to the report which he had completed and submitted. "They are considering that report and planning to release their policy along with the report's findings by the end of this month," he said.
In defence of the ACS, Kinnaird said they had commissioned a study and were now willing to pay for an update. "The government departments should be doing this because the government is responsible for immigration policy, not the ACS," he said.
"The immigration department is supposed to take advice from the department of employment and workplace relations about matters such as this. One would expect immigration to also speak to the ICT department and the minister. Why that didn't happen last year, when they had copies of the report which the ACS commissioned, I guess you'd have to ask the departments concerned."
Kinnaird said all available evidence pointed to a massive oversupply of IT graduates.
"Thirty percent of IT graduates can't find full-time work. This is much higher than the other professions where 20 percent can't find permanent work," he said. "Last year, there were about 2000 IT graduates out there in the market without jobs, these being from the 2003 graduation class."
He said among post-graduates, 26 percent could not find full-time jobs. "The figure for other fields is 12 percent, so there is no justification to speak of a manpower shortage."
Among general IT professionals, Kinnaird said the unemployment figure was relatively high compared to the past - 4 percent for IT pros, 2 percent for other professionals.
He pointed to government statistics which show that there are more suitable applicants for IT vacancies now than a couple of years ago. "In May 2004, there were 5.8 suitable applications for each vacancy; in 2003, it was 5.5. And this judgement is made by employers, not recruitment agencies. The figure was 3 during the height of the tech boom."
Kinnaird said the situation in NSW was tighter than in some other states but said he could not provide figures right away.
"No doubt, the labour market is improving. But if people are talking about shortages of skilled IT personnel and a skills crisis, then one would think that they should produce some evidence of the same," he said.
Kinnaird again pointed to government statistics published in the last few weeks to show that migration was adding to ICT oversupply.
"The number of ICT visas issued in 2003-04 was 9400, of which about 50 percent (4800) were onshore visas, meaning visas for overseas students graduating in ICT from Australian universities. That represents an increase on the number issued in 2002-03.
"The increase was over 50 percent, from around 6000 visas in 2002-03. In other words, while 30 percent of Australian IT graduates could not find a full-time job in 2004 (2000 people), the government actually increased the ICT immigration intake by 50 percent from 6000 to 9400.
"That shows how ICT immigration has got out of line with the ICT labour market reality. My report to the ACS suggests ways of fixing this," he said.
The talk of a skills shortage in ICT labour market is perplexing because most available data points in exactly the opposite direction, a leading labour market consultant says.
Bob Kinnaird, who is with the Sydney firm of R.T. Kinnaird and Associates, said there was no evidence to justify the claims of a shortage of qualified labour among IT graduates, post-graduates or experienced professionals.
Kinnaird undertook a study for the Australian Computer Society last year which found that migrant IT workers were depriving Australian IT workers of jobs. The report was never released by the ACS, according to a report in the Australian Financial Review.
However, a copy was passed to the then communications minister Daryl Williams and distributed to several government departments.
Kinnaird said today that the ACS had commissioned him to do an update to the report which he had completed and submitted. "They are considering that report and planning to release their policy along with the report's findings by the end of this month," he said.
In defence of the ACS, Kinnaird said they had commissioned a study and were now willing to pay for an update. "The government departments should be doing this because the government is responsible for immigration policy, not the ACS," he said.
"The immigration department is supposed to take advice from the department of employment and workplace relations about matters such as this. One would expect immigration to also speak to the ICT department and the minister. Why that didn't happen last year, when they had copies of the report which the ACS commissioned, I guess you'd have to ask the departments concerned."
Kinnaird said all available evidence pointed to a massive oversupply of IT graduates.
"Thirty percent of IT graduates can't find full-time work. This is much higher than the other professions where 20 percent can't find permanent work," he said. "Last year, there were about 2000 IT graduates out there in the market without jobs, these being from the 2003 graduation class."
He said among post-graduates, 26 percent could not find full-time jobs. "The figure for other fields is 12 percent, so there is no justification to speak of a manpower shortage."
Among general IT professionals, Kinnaird said the unemployment figure was relatively high compared to the past - 4 percent for IT pros, 2 percent for other professionals.
He pointed to government statistics which show that there are more suitable applicants for IT vacancies now than a couple of years ago. "In May 2004, there were 5.8 suitable applications for each vacancy; in 2003, it was 5.5. And this judgement is made by employers, not recruitment agencies. The figure was 3 during the height of the tech boom."
Kinnaird said the situation in NSW was tighter than in some other states but said he could not provide figures right away.
"No doubt, the labour market is improving. But if people are talking about shortages of skilled IT personnel and a skills crisis, then one would think that they should produce some evidence of the same," he said.
Kinnaird again pointed to government statistics published in the last few weeks to show that migration was adding to ICT oversupply.
"The number of ICT visas issued in 2003-04 was 9400, of which about 50 percent (4800) were onshore visas, meaning visas for overseas students graduating in ICT from Australian universities. That represents an increase on the number issued in 2002-03.
"The increase was over 50 percent, from around 6000 visas in 2002-03. In other words, while 30 percent of Australian IT graduates could not find a full-time job in 2004 (2000 people), the government actually increased the ICT immigration intake by 50 percent from 6000 to 9400.
"That shows how ICT immigration has got out of line with the ICT labour market reality. My report to the ACS suggests ways of fixing this," he said.
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