History repeats - the trick is to notice

Back in the early years of this century many senior IT folks were aghast as their earnings disappeared or were significantly reduced.

In some not un-typical situations incomes reduced by two thirds between 2001 and 2005.

Few other Australian industries have ever experienced that. Most Australians would be upset if they didn't get an annual pay rise. There would be a revolution if incomes ever went down!

Against the background of this - and fast forwarding to 2009 - we can see a difficult situation unfolding with commercial real estate.

I outlined yesterday my experiences in looking for small warehouse accommodation. It looks like many landlords are not yet prepared or ready to accept the new realities that exist in 2009.

Just like many IT folk weren't prepared back in 2001.

But reality has a nasty habit of catching up with us - as painful as it might be - we all need to adapt.

The lessons of the IT industry are that the earlier we change our expectations then the easier the transition will become.

But while history may repeat with the outcomes - I don't expect anyone who deals with commercial real estate to understand that - just yet.

Because the scale of the problem is so much larger and the people involved are not well equipped to deal with it.

Later this year is when the crisis will become apparent. That is when we will be able to identify the leaders as opposed to the followers.