The Coalition - where is it headed?

Possum has a great analysis and series of graphs on the relative nationwide performance of the three major political parties (Labor, Liberal and Nationals) since 1996 - here.

Of particular interest (to me anyway) is the decline of the once mighty Coalition over that time.

Their Lower House seat holding has gone from 58% in 1996 to 39% in 2009 while the Labor party has gone from 40% in 1996 to 50% in 2009. Note that this measure is nationwide and includes the States and the Federal parliament.

Now I know that the Coalition is not big on analysis - at least not in any scientific way - but surely they have noticed this serious decline throughout their supposedly glorious years.

Ask any rusted on Coalition supporter about their greatest period in government and they will tell you that it was the period between 1996 and 2007 - when "the Stonefish" ruled the roost.

Well they may have been in government Federally but according to the decline in their seat holding, they impressed less and less Australians at the numerous State and Federal elections since 1996. This latest work by Possum demonstrates that the Coalition has been on the nose with declining support for all of that time.

If ever there was a time for some fact based analysis of why they are in serious decline - it is now. But realistically, I doubt they even know where to start.

Of course some of the Liberals who do recognise this decline are behind the recent attempts to draft Peter Costello into the leadership - sort of wishing and hoping that he can resurrect the "good old days".

It does look like the Nationals have worked something out though - especially with the increasingly shrill noise that Barnaby Joyce is making about carbon trading.

Barnaby is on a trajectory to become the Pauline Hanson of the decade. He will get there by demonising carbon trading instead of Asians but like her, he will rely on ignorance and fear to capture the attention of his constituents.

And like her he will crash and burn and probably take his party with him - amen.